The problem with the #NoEstimates Debate

The problem with the #NoEstimates debate is that both sides are not arguing the same thing and therefore the debate focuses on invalid points. The #NoEstimates hash tag has almost nothing to do with estimates, despite the focus the debates have. What is really being discussed is fundamental ways of doing business.  The pro #NoEstimates group is talking about a fundamental shift in how business is being done. We are talking about regulating and controlling price of software in a very different way.

Without changing, in entirety, the way in which business is done then a lot of the concerns the anti-#NoEstimates group bring up are valid. However, we are talking about a fundamentally different way of doing business.

The basic tenant of #NoEstimates is to change the way that decisions are made. We start with the assumption that the market is moving faster than we can. If this is true, then anything that delays getting a product to market has a huge cost associated with it. This cost is measured in employee hours, loss of customer faith, and competition gaining market shares before us.

The second tenant is that we are going to make mistakes. We are human, and therefore it is impossible to be correct all the time. If we are going to make mistakes, then let’s minimize those mistakes. We want to release small pieces of functionality often so that we can get feedback quickly. We can use this feedback to find mistakes before they are big and costly.

The third tenant is that the market will move with the introduction of product. Once the customer gets any functionality that is useful to them, that functionality will change what they want from future functionality. We have to be able to sense and move with that change.

This brings us full circle. The market is going to change faster than we can.

#NoEstimates is a way of doing business that attempts to accept these three tenants, while ethically helping companies navigate the new landscape of business. We do this by making business decisions in real-time and trying experiments in the marketplace to determine real value. We make decisions based on evidence instead of estimates.